China-related news don't usually make the headline news of New York Times, unless it happens to be this influential...

 

From Shanghai, Tremors Heard Around the World
By DAVID BARBOZA

SHANGHAI, Feb. 27 — In China’s wild cowboy stock market, record-breaking run-ups have been followed by mini-crashes that have been largely confined within this country’s borders.

But on Tuesday, China’s worst one-day tumble in a decade set off a tumult that rolled through markets around the globe, from Tokyo to Frankfurt to Brazil to Wall Street.

Speculative frenzy had lifted the Shanghai composite index above the 3,000-point milestone on Monday and then gave way to a tumultuous sell-off on Tuesday that sent shares plummeting nearly 9 percent.

The downturn shattered all sorts of records, and analysts said there was no clear reason for Tuesday’s severe drop in Shanghai, equivalent to a 1,100-point drop in the Dow Jones industrial average. But the Chinese stock market was rife with rumors that the government was considering new measures to tame the world’s hottest stock market before a bubble developed.

To many investors and analysts here, however, the extensive sell-off was just the latest indication that share prices in China had often become unhinged from the broader economy. Millions of everyday investors rushed blindly into stocks, emptying out their savings account to “play the market,” as many of them say.

Perhaps the most remarkable sign of the recent irrational exuberance underpinning China’s stock markets was that during the last year, when a company announced bad news, its stock price shot through the roof.

Early this year, for instance, when a group of 17 Chinese companies was cited by regulators for misappropriating corporate funds, their stock prices all skyrocketed. When the Tianjin Global Magnetic Card Company failed to report quarterly earnings last April, its stock doubled.

Tuesday was different, though. With shares in Shanghai tumbling, stocks listed in Shenzhen also collapsed, falling 9.3 percent. In Hong Kong, the benchmark Hang Seng index fell 1.76 percent, and in Japan, the Nikkei dropped about half a point, to 18,119.92.

The volatility of Shanghai sometimes produced unusual results. Shares of the Industrial and Commercial Bank of China, which went public simultaneously on the Shanghai and Hong Kong stock markets last October, performed very differently on the two markets, for example. I.C.B.C. shares dropped 8 percent on Tuesday in Shanghai but just 1.8 percent in Hong Kong.

But with stocks in Hong Kong reacting on Wednesday morning to the global sell-off, I.C.B.C. shares dropped 3.7 percent on Wednesday morning in Hong Kong but rose two-tenths of a percent in Shanghai.

None of the world’s major stock markets have been as volatile as that of China, where people refer to the stock market as “dubo ji,” or the slot machine. The gyrations have become almost commonplace for a stock market that suffered through a five-year depression until 2006, when it rose more than 130 percent, the world’s best performance.

The Chinese government, however, is worried about an over-reaction that could produce a bubble and then a crash that could send bankrupt investors into the streets in protest.

Analysts say that at least in some cases, the stocks of tainted companies have risen because the companies were viewed as shedding old problems and starting anew. Still, some of those problems reflect deep cultural attitudes and are unlikely to be fixed overnight.

Analysts also argue that the market has been running up because of stronger fundamentals, rising profits, improved regulation and oversight by officials, and confidence in the market’s long-term prospects.

But in this current run of market mania, even corruption appears to be a buy signal. That was the case for the Shanghai Bailian Group, which reported on Dec. 29 that its chairman was under investigation for fraud. The company’s shares have climbed 45 percent since then.

Two weeks ago, after the chairman of the Shanghai Hai Niao Enterprise Development Company was detained, his company’s shares rose 15 percent.

“There’s just too much liquidity out there, too much,” says Chang Chun, a financial reform expert at the China Europe International Business School in Shanghai. “This is a psychological thing.”

China’s stock market system is still relatively immature, and trustworthy information about a company’s performance is still hard to come by. So the average investor does little or no research.

Just to find names of stocks to buy is a task for new investors. So if they see even a mention in the press, positive or negative, they start buying. If alert investors are lucky, they might get a tip. If state television mentions a company, it must be worth something, and if they don’t catch the full story, they at least have a name.

“If I hear a stock mentioned on the TV news I will pay attention to it,” says Xu Xiaochen, a 55-year-old retiree.

In any case, many investors here seem to believe that the secret to picking stocks is luck and confidence in the government, not the fundamentals of any particular company.

“I don’t know how to choose a stock,” says a 61-year-old retiree who gave her name as Miss Hou at a local brokerage house a few weeks ago. “But I trust those technology companies. Maybe the names of some companies sound lucky to me, so I choose to buy these stocks.”

Government officials began cautioning several weeks ago against “blind optimism” in the stock market. Banks were ordered to stop making loans to people who were speculating in the market. Trading volumes have been so high that the Shanghai Stock Exchange recently warned that the country’s electronic trading system could be destabilized.

Stock prices fell sharply for four straight days in early February as investors seemed to contemplate the possibility of an overheated market.

After a brief pause, they rushed in again. Foreign money is also piling in, according to JPMorgan, and hardly an analyst is willing to bet against the stock market.

“You can’t be a fundamental investor in China,” said Michael Pettis, a professor of finance at Peking University. “You can only speculate.”

Mr. Pettis, who has long been a market skeptic here, is now raising a fund to invest in Chinese stocks, based on his projections of the inflow that will push up prices.

“There’s a huge amount of money in the banking system with nowhere to go,” he said. “I think you’re going to see that money getting out of the banking system.”

Mutual funds are also helping some individual investors, while others are scrambling into initial offerings, which over the last year have had a strong opening-day track record.

Of the 15 companies that went public on the Shanghai Stock Exchange, 12 of them experienced opening-day rises of more than 10 percent.

Now, regulators are seeing a growing number of stock frauds directed at small investors. And Chinese officials worry that investors are still relying on a welfare state — which is increasingly disappearing — to take care of them.

As for the companies that are seeing their stock prices climb despite their troubles, they may be hard pressed for explanations, but nonetheless defend the phenomenon.

“The stock is the stock, and the C.E.O. is the C.E.O.,” said a woman working in the executive office at Shanghai Haixin Group after she acknowledged that the chief executive was under investigation. “As for our C.E.O.’s bad news, yes, it happened. But it is outdated and not newsworthy at all. As for the stock price, we don’t know either.”

 

下载了两天两夜，总算把今年春节晚会从晚上给下载下来了。知道海星同学又要笑话俺老土，其实俺也觉得挺土的。刚看了一个节目“爱祖国的孩子最美丽。”节目编排和俺小时候“生产队的小鸭子”没什么区别。看到五六岁的小孩子，唱歌唱的和俺小时候差不多，暗自发笑，都是深受摧残呀。紧接下来的一个节目是容祖儿的歌 --- “世界很大，都是我的。。。我只为自己跳舞。。。” 看来二十岁出头的人和五六岁的小孩是两个境界。小时候为祖国，长大了为自己。。。 我们这一代人， 小时候是共产主义接班人，长大了就都是红色买办了。

 

留美六年，俺是愈来愈土。这半年里看过的唯一中国电视就是春节晚会。回国买回来的书一共五本：史记，资治通鉴，三国，汉书，三侠五义。早上在学校看华尔街日报，一回家就看史记了。

 

今年的春晚是不怎么样。。。 一边看，一别随手罗罗嗦嗦写了这么许多。。。

Roy 同学是天生的笔杆子。把给我的书信也投给了东方早报。。。 不过这可是很特别的新年祝福！

谢谢Roy!!

————————————————————————————————————

Jason：你好！

从加州出差回来了吗？现在是在马里兰的家里了吗？在美国当大学老师不容易吧。今年过年有没有给你在云南的父母打电话，有没有看CCTV的春晚？

10亿人瞩目的春节晚会最关键的时刻——零点报时中，6位主持人居然晚了一秒，在倒计时数到1的时候，新年的钟声就敲响了，这在以前的春晚中是从未有过的。这样的错误被一些观众戏称“春晚最大看点”。大年初一，春晚总导演金越在做客新浪聊天室时承认了错误，他说，由于赵本山小品超时引起节目调整，导致零点计时混乱，导致了这一错误。

我不知道这里的新年钟声指的是晚会现场的钟声，还是那个倒计时表盘上的时刻，或者是CCTV右上角的时间。由于鞭炮声音太大，我没有听清楚。但是我是清楚地看到那个倒计时表盘上的时刻比是CCTV右上角的时间慢一秒钟。如果观众指的是差的这一秒，而被称为“春晚最大看点”，“以前的春晚中是从未有过的”，那是不公平的。

记得2001年春晚，我们大四，看完春晚，我给挑了10个的毛病，贴在了学校的BBS上，并寄一份给了CCTV。其中第十条就是：“现场主持人的倒计时的0点比中央电视台右上角自己打出来的时间快7秒！不知道是技术失误，还是为了腾出时间给“曲美”的倒计时钟面留出时间。”他们可能觉得还算有道理，还给我寄了一份CCTV的小礼物。并且从第二年开始，CCTV就已经在出倒计时钟时，不再显示右上角的时间了。

想不到，今年春晚又犯了老毛病。有两个计时器，再加上主持人的倒计时，等于有3个时间，出现问题几乎是必然的。解决这个问题的唯一办法，不是让赵本山把时间掐得准一点，也不是让主持人数的准一点，而是只用一块表。要么只用主持人的倒计时，要么只显示那个倒计时的表面，总之，右上角的时间是不应该显示的。

相信在美国的你肯定注意过拳击比赛的计时。拳击比赛的电视转播，一般会在每个回合进行倒计时电子显示，直到最后10秒。最后10秒，倒计时就不再显示，以现场锣声为准，以免出现2个计时器的麻烦。而美国转播NBA的时候，不但有每节12分钟时间的倒计时，而且在每次进攻的时候有24秒倒计时。但是在每节的最后一次进攻的时候，就不进行24秒倒计时，一方面没有意义，另一方面也是防止计时中间出现的麻烦。即时是NBA这样精确的计时方法，也偶尔会出现现场的倒计时失误，引起争持。

另外多说一句，不怕犯错误，就怕同样的错误以后再犯。CCTV（其实远远不止是CCTV）应该把以前错误好好总结，并且教给后来人，这样才能一年更比一年好，不是嘛？

祝你金猪年大吉！有空回上海看看！

Roy

 

明天准备去加州出差。南加州的阳光或许能给近来的阴霾带来一丝温暖。

周末是中国年了。。。不知道写些什么。。。除了拜年就留个空白吧！

学校终于因为雪太大而停课了。早上铲了半个小时的雪，也没把车给从雪堆里弄出来。幸好今天不用工作。好冷呀！！寄了封email给学生，庆祝雪天放假。其实老师比学生还要高兴。

在自己的阳台上堆了一个小熊熊。我的Valentine’s bear!

 

每天都在下雪。。。 每天下。。。每天下。。。什么时候停呢？

下班回家。今天是一年里最冷的一天，华氏10度，摄氏零下13度吧。一个标标准准的南方人，对这样的恶劣天气深恶痛绝。

 

大家把车都开得很慢，路上有浮冰，车很容易出事故的。往常15分钟的路程，今天要45分钟。收音机里传出中文，这是很意外的。原来是音乐台有一个亚洲流行音10年回顾。。。 10年老的音乐对我来说正是熟悉的。专辑是莫文蔚的“十二楼”，其实是我很喜欢的。。。重复听熟悉的音乐， 还是让人很感动。。。音乐是个奇怪的东西。在不同的心境里，感觉是完全不同的。

 

在冰天雪地的缓慢爬行里，让人暂时忘了车外的世界。。。不知不觉，竟然把车开过了头，错过了回家的路。。。45分钟的路程，我花了1小时20分种。。。

 

把外罩拉拉近，回家冲个热水澡，早点睡吧。。。好长的一天。

 

 

2月1日。我常常记得，也常常记不起。

 

今年的2月1日，马里兰州的大雪纷飞，寒气逼人。

 

小时候2月1日，最大的愿望是“吉庆祥”的奶油蛋糕。。。 毕竟一年也就大概一次机会。记得父母也不是每年都会给我买奶油蛋糕的。有一次在上海照相馆旁边的糕饼店，看到橱窗里的一片奶油蛋糕，写着鲜奶蛋糕，标价1元（当时是很贵的）。。。好眼馋那。张口向爸爸要，爸爸说了很多理由，没给我买。不是父母不爱孩子。但那时的父母和现在的父母大概也是很不同的吧。后来爸爸单位里过新年要发奶油蛋糕票的，这才每年有奶油蛋糕吃。

 

中学的2月1日，总是想邀同学到家里聚会。狐朋狗友聚一聚，其乐也融融。妈妈是不太喜欢把同学邀到家里的人，于是多数时间也就作罢，2月1日便也不太记得起来了。

 

大学的2月1日，是意气风发，每每要回顾一年的得失，为明年立志。也要损失些银子，请宿舍的兄弟们胡吃海喝一顿。没了父母的束缚，自然也就有些放肆了。

 

今年的2月1日，是好不容易，好不容易读完了书的第一个2月1日。掐指算来，整整读了21年书了。没有著书立说，著作齐身。只有了一份简单的大学教书的工作。细细一想，有一些英雄末路，美人迟暮的感觉。是失意吗？谈不上。有一些迷惘吧。今年的2月1日做什么呢？没什么计划。到底哪一天算是2月1日呢？中国时间还是美国时间呢？好像一个外星人，连2月1日到底是哪一天也搞不清楚。难怪自己的美国签证上有我的外星人号码（Alien number）。在美国，外国人和外星人原来是同一个单词。我的合法身份，叫做常住外星人 (Resident Alien)。

 

2月1日是我的生日。